Right On Life

Christian, Pro-Life, Conservative

Cain Takes Lead in CBS/NYT Poll

Image of Herman Cain

The latest CBS New/New York Times poll on the Republican candidates was released yesterday. It shows Herman Cain leading the pack with 25% support among Republican primary voters and 32% among Tea Party supporters.

The top four candidates in this poll, Cain, Romney, Gingrich, and Paul, all show a steady upward trend in the three CBS/NYT polls (9/16, 10/3, and 10/25) with Cain having the strongest upward trend. The polls show steady erosion of support for Perry and Bachmann with Perry having the sharpest down trend. Indecision also decreased from 22%-14% (from 18% to 8% in the Tea Party subset). Santorum and Huntsman have held steady at around 1%-2%.

Observations:     

  1. Fewer Republican primary voters remain undecided (though the majority of support remains less than “firm”).
  2. The movement in the Tea Party preferences closely parallels the movement in the general Republican preferences.
  3. Tea Party voters like the candidates weakest on pro-life issues better than general Republican primary voters do.

Guesses:

  1. The argument between Romney and Perry in the debate on the 18th hurt both–probably for the silly reason that they “looked unpresidential”.
  2. Cain’s abortion position is still unclear; it’s impact on primary voters is not yet fully felt.
  3. Much of this poll reflects Republicans’ guesses as to who is most likely to defeat Obama, rather than actual preference. That’s what gave us McCain last time.
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26th October 2011 2:27 AM - Posted by | Poll, Republican Primary | , , , , , , , , ,

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